Reconciling justice in transition away from coal

Abstract

Action to mitigate climate change requires an accelerated transition away from fossil fuels. The global climate target can be achieved only when we shift away from all unabated coal across sectors and countries (IPCC 2018). For developing countries like India, the accelerated energy transition away from coal contradicts its fast-tracked economic growth needs. It is a complex pathway with social, economic, political, and environmental trade-offs. Decoupling the socio economic growth from coal requires the identification of areas where risks and responsibilities lie. It directly links to exploring where the most vulnerable are and how they can adapt to the transition. The thesis contributes to the gap in research in understanding the vulnerabilities and how to address them at the district level for an equitable and just transition away from coal. The conceptual framework of the thesis is based on just transition literature review. The methodological approach to just transition is based on the three tenets – distributional justice, recognitional justice, and restorative justice, to answer the three research questions of when India can phase out coal, who bears the burden of the phase-out, and how the transition can restore justice while phasing out coal. The coal phase-out timeline studied through the scenario assessment energy model shows that the coal demand (power sector) would peak in 2040 and coal plants without Carbon Capture Storage (CCS) would start phasing out. The timeline is aligned with the national energy goals and climate action targets of India. The implications of the phase-out on employment, revenue for the government, and air pollution at the national level are calculated outside the energy model. The implication of the phase-out at the district level is studied through a vulnerability index (VI) constructed using socio-economic indicators. VI shows that the vulnerability to coal phase-out is concentrated in 10 districts. The microanalysis of the indicators shows that the increasing coal economy in the districts does not feed the district's socio-economic growth. Instead, the districts with high coal dominance have poor socio-economic and environmental conditions reflecting a resource curse. The theory of the resource curse is studied through a case study approach in the Singrauli district (one of the top vulnerable districts under the Vulnerability Index). Twenty-three key stakeholders were identified, and an unstructured in-depth interview was used to capture their perspectives. The study shows that the reasons that make the district vulnerable to phase-out, like lack of social infrastructure (education and healthcare facilities), poor connectivity through railways and roadways, environmental degradation, lack of political will towards the development of the local economy, and concentrated governance for coal dominance, act as a barrier to the transition away from coal. Insights from the study contribute to framing policies and strategies for a just transition pathway away from coal. The thesis develops a multi-dimensional framework for just phase-out planning of coal at the district level. The framework addresses the socio-economic and environmental challenges of just transition away from coal at the national and district levels. The thesis emphasizes that coal phase-out presents an opportunity to rebuild vulnerable districts. The framework is used to analyse energy policy within a larger sustainable development goal to build a resilient and sustainable economy.