Assessing climate change impact on the distribution of the endemic White-naped Tit (Machlolophus nuchalis) using citizen science data

Abstract

The White-naped Tit (Machlolophus nuchalis) is an endemic, vulnerable bird species restricted to arid and semi-arid landscapes of India, with disjunct populations in the western and southern regions. Despite its conservation significance, detailed knowledge of its habitat distribution and potential responses to climate change remains limited. This study employs ‘MaxEnt’ species distribution modelling tool using citizen science data and bioclimatic variables to predict current and future suitable habitats under various future climate change scenarios. Our model performed robustly (AUC = 0.915; TSS = 0.689), identifying temperature as one of the major predictors shaping the species’ climatic niche. Results indicate a severe contraction (down to ~ 1% of current extent) of suitable habitat in the western distribution range in the future, contrasted by substantial expansion in the southern distribution. Land use and land cover comparison reveals ongoing declines in rangeland in both regions, intensifying vulnerability from habitat loss and anthropogenic pressures. These findings highlight urgent conservation needs including habitat restoration, nest box placing, and landscape connectivity to mitigate climate and land use impacts. Ultimately, this study provides a rigorous baseline for targeted management of the White-naped Tit habitat under climate change and exemplifies the importance of studies on species in arid and semi-arid landscapes. © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Deutsche Ornithologen-Gesellschaft e.V 2025.